CA23108 - Seasonal-to-decadal climate predictability in the Mediterranean: process understanding and services (MEDUSSE)

Climate forecasting has enormous potential influence in different socio-economic sectors, such as agriculture, health, water management, and energy. Actionable climate information is particularly relevant at seasonal-to-decadal timescales, where predictability is linked to slow fluctuations of the system such as those in the ocean, sea-ice and land-surface, thus bridging weather/sub-seasonal predictions (mainly relying on atmospheric initial condition) with future projections (mainly based on atmospheric radiative forcing). Seasonal-to-decadal climate forecasting has progressed considerably in recent years, but prediction skill over the Mediterranean is still limited. Better understanding the drivers of regional climate anomalies as well as exploring untapped sources of predictability constitute a much-needed and timely effort.

Climate variability and change pose significant challenges to society worldwide. As a result, there is a growing demand to develop improved climate information products and outlooks to help decision making and sustainable development. This is particularly critical in the Mediterranean, a region sensible to natural hazards (e.g. droughts, floods) and vulnerable to climate stress (i.e. global warming). Such an improvement can only be achieved by coordinating efforts of research groups with different expertise and trans-disciplinary. In this Action, both the scientific challenge and societal challenge will be addressed by establishing a network of experts on climate variability, predictability, prediction and application. The Action will provide support to increase awareness and capability, and guidance to suitably evolve climate knowledge into services. Specific objectives include cross-cutting training and collaboration, empowering national hydro-meteorological agencies, and fostering a continuous communication between climate researchers and stakeholders.