Every summer, news headlines report the sad toll of fire damage in Europe and beyond. Every summer, we discover with sadness the devastation that these fires wreak in our forests, and increasingly near to our cities, and homes. The figures reveal the devastating scale of the wildfires that struck the continent with severe consequences on biodiversity, and the economy.
Fire has always been a natural component of our planet. But today, we face a new reality. Larger, more intense, and unpredictable wildfires are occurring with increasing frequency across the globe. Extreme wildfire events are becoming the new normal.
In Europe, the situation is rapidly evolving. The abandonment of rural areas and the lack of efficient land management, together with weather and climate extremes driven by accelerating climate change, have created an environment that today is more conducive than ever to extreme wildfire events.
Extreme wildfires are defined by their intense and often dangerously unpredictable behaviour, which may include erratic fire spread, massive spotting, crowning, deep flaming, and the development of pyro-convection.
Coordination needed
Despite significant progress in understanding extreme wildfires over recent decades, the knowledge acquired is insufficient for predicting the size and intensity of recent events. Research efforts remain uncoordinated and highlight the difficulties of developing valuable tools and models. Additionally, there is a notable lack of well-documented observational evidence, particularly when comparing Europe to North America or Australia.
There is a considerable need to enhance the ability to foresee situations where a wildfire could escalate into an extreme event. Additionally, the existing gap between researchers and practitioners hinders the conversion of new and empirical knowledge into science-based solutions, which are crucial for enhancing training, analysis, and suppression of extreme wildfires. Addressing this challenge requires re-evaluating current knowledge and adopting new paradigms.
Introducing NERO, a European network on extreme fire behaviour
The european Network on Extreme fiRe behaviOr (NERO) aims to promote scientific knowledge on extreme wildfires and develop new predictive tools and services capable of supporting more efficient and safer management of these events.
Since the launch of the network in October 2023, 29 European countries, Australia, the USA, and Algeria have been participating in the NERO network. NERO brings together more than 175 European and international wildlife researchers and practitioners ranging from forestry and wildfires to meteorology and environmental/computational engineering. It bridges experienced and skilled researchers from fire-prone Mediterranean countries with colleagues from emerging fire-prone countries in the north.
Dr Theodore Giannaros, from the National Observatory of Athens and NERO Action Chair, wrote the proposal for the project which has just successfully completed its first year. “Fire has changed because we changed the environment in which it occurs. Our current understanding of extreme wildfires is valuable, but it is not enough. We need to understand more, predict better, and act more efficiently. This is where NERO comes in. NERO is about more than just research on extreme wildfire events. It is about establishing a new culture of fire management in Europe, one that bridges the gap between science and practice and builds on effective transnational exchange of expert knowledge.”
NERO has set several objectives and intends to tackle key challenges by coordinating basic research on extreme wildfires at the international level to develop a common understanding of extreme fire behaviour.
Fire behaviour
NERO will create new open-source observational data sets to support the study and define a new protocol that breaks down the development of extreme fire behaviour into processes related to fuels, topography, and weather.
These three factors are at the heart of the fire process to understand its behaviour. Analysing the role of fuel plays a crucial role in determining when the landscape shifts from a non-flammable to a highly flammable state. Topography is the stable component of the fire environment and can significantly influence fire behaviour.
Lastly, weather is the most variable component. Air temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, solar radiation, and the three-dimensional structure of the atmosphere itself affect fire behaviour. But fire also creates its weather, modifying meteorological conditions and triggering feedback loops that can significantly escalate fire behaviour.
Research efforts need to prioritise the design of field experiments and collect the actual data required for gaining a better understanding of the influence of fuels, topography, and weather on the development of extreme fire behaviour, as well as of the physical processes that underpin the fire-atmosphere coupling.
Through the network, training for practitioners and researchers, particularly those from emerging fire-prone countries, will be enhanced and expanded. To pave the way for harmonised training across Europe, a mutual understanding of operational and research experiences and lessons learned will be fostered.
A novel network of fire science communicators will be launched to provide fact-based briefs for media and public communication on wildfires exhibiting extreme fire behaviour, thereby boosting public awareness.
“Fires are a fascinating phenomenon that impacts everyone and sparks widespread interest. By sharing science-based information and research outcomes, we aim to demystify extreme fire behaviour and educate the community, empowering them to be prepared and avoid harm.”
Dr Ljiljana Šerić, NERO Science Communication Coordinator
The compilation of a pan-European fire behaviour dataset will be exploited to build knowledge and tools to better understand and predict the conditions that lead to the development of extreme fire behaviour.
A coordinated approach
Extreme fires are not a new phenomenon, already being studied. However, the added value of this network is to consider previous research and observations with the involvement of key stakeholder players. The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) the European Forest Institute (EFI), and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) are actively supporting the Action.
NERO aims to open new perspectives and intends to break silos while investigating new approaches to tackle the problem of extreme wildfires. In addition, by bridging the gap between science and practice, the network plans to enhance the operational capacity at the European level and beyond.
Additional Information
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JRC Publications: Advance Report on Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2023